Kitman Labs PIRI (Performance Intelligence Research Initiative) predicts England to win over Spain in the 2023 FIFA Women’s World Cup final just hours away. Winning in this WWC has been for the young and most spirited squads, however, key performance data across football categories indicates the Lionesses have enough advantages in match metrics to earn a close victory for the first time in country history. The English men’s team last won in 1966, the year I was born. The Spanish men won the MWC in 2010. It won’t be easy for England as the Spanish team is fast, loose and confident in their soccer skill sets, both individually and teamwise, which is enough to grind out a victory for their first time too. Kitman’s Performance Experts shared WWC finals data deciphered from years of research and scientific experience garnered from work with notable sports organizations around the globe featured in their blogs comparing the teams from both the Finals and Semifinals that included Sweden and the hosts, Australia. The Sports Techie community blog took a deep dive look at KL’s data and actually is going against their SaaS Intelligence platform-based predictions and educated guessing that Spain will bring home the championship mainly because of their more wide-open style of attacking play. For you sports betting enthusiasts, Kitman has the only single, centralized operating system for performance intelligence in the elite performance industry so keep that in mind. The August 20, Sunday final at Stadium Australia in Sydney starts play at 6:00 AM ET.
Why Team England or Team Spain?
By analyzing travel distance and international experience, Kitman gives England the advantage. England also converts over 15% of shots compared to Spain’s 12% shooting accuracy. The Lioness team brings a solid defensive alignment resulting in only 3 goals against all tournament and 25% of shots to hit the target. Mary Earps, the World Goalkeeper of the year in 2022 has saved over 80% of shots making her a top keeper in this WWC. England also has better cohesion and lineup stability resulting in higher performance ratings.
Breaking down squad value and replacements, defensive abilities, and team freshness/load management, all favor La Roja. Spain is the younger squad and are potentially fresher with more players inserted into match play resulting in less minutes played per player. Spain also has more elite goal scoring ability with 9 different Spaniards tallying a goal during tournament play. The talented team also generated the most opportunities, shots and shots on target throughout the tourney. Defensively, Spain only conceded half the shots of any of the top 4 teams yet they also had the highest shot accuracy against, with opponents converting almost 50% of shots on target resulting in the most goals conceded by the final four squads.
England has home stadium advantage with their third back-to-back match at Sydney Stadium while Spain had a 2000 km trip across two tome-zones to factor in after Tuesday’s semifinal.
The all-important rating and recent performance are actually even up.
All that complied and analyzed data by KL gives England the slight edge and a Cup win.
The Kitman specialists want it known, all categories are not created equal, and therefore are inclined to agree with the oddsmakers given to Spain by oddsmakers, currently set at England +187 and Spain at +166. BetMGM favored Spain at odds of -120. England’s comes in at -110.
KL concludes, “this has the makings of a fascinating final that is too close to confidently call.”
A breakdown of each criteria with charts noting the data at this Kitman Labs blog.
The World Cup final will air on FOX and Telemundo for television viewers. It will also be live streaming on FoxSports.com in English and Peacock in Spanish. Additionally, DirecTV Stream, Sling Blue, Hulu with Live TV, YouTube TV, and Fubo will live stream the Finals.
Sports Techie, going from a 32-team field for the first time in Cup history to the final two in the world’s best tournament, has been exciting to watch, even after the two-time defending champions, Team USA, bowed out to Sweden in a thrilling round of 16 shootout.
There are more factors and key data points to consider:
The Lionesses get star forward, Lauren James back after a two-game suspension for their first final match after reaching the semifinals in 2015 and 2019, thanks to guidance by England’s Manager, Sarina Wiegman. Look for additional attacking support from Lauren Hemp, Alessia Russo and Ella Toone.
Spain has had to overcome 15 players leaving La Roja’s after complaining via an email sent to the national federation about manager Jorge Vilda and their resulting mental issues. Vilda kept 3 of the players and 12 resigned yet that has not stopped Spain from reaching the knockout stage for the first time in history and overcoming this difficult challenge. A couple more names to remember are Spain’s Aitana Bonmatí and Salma Paralluelo.
Kitman Labs performance data and youth are the strengths that make up team England and team Spain, respectively, yet, perhaps it’s as simple as the extra rest day that pushes La Roja past the Lionesses for the victory. KL’s recent research also gives the nod to Spain’s good load management as a key factor when deciding who will win.
England is higher rated for this game and the PIRI research by KL weighs this heavily when predicting game performance.
Don’t forget, Spain lost to England in last year’s European quarterfinals but they are sporting an almost brand-new team featuring 9 players from the Champions League winning FC Barcelona roster.
Statistics are about even between these two teams, making their matchup one of subtle yet obvious differences.
Spain brings the speed and offense; England has the defense and strong finishing skills.
You still have to play the game though.
See you later sportstechie in Seattle, Atlanta and around the world!
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