Is Machine Learning The Holy Grail For Betting On Football?

If you’ve ever placed a bet on a sports event, then your dollars have become a drop in the bucket of the billions wagered each year on these types of events. The Sports Techie community believes wagering will be legalized outside of Las Vegas by the end of the year 2017. Does that mean sports tech tools help you win more often?

Maybe you’ve even won a couple of bets, which could have led you to believe that you could even make a living as a professional bettor.

Considering that just on last year’s Super Bowl alone, a record $318.5 million was taken in by sportsbooks according to the Nevada Gaming Commission, it sure sounds like a big piece of cake you can possibly share in.

Now, maybe you’re privy to the fact the odds are against you. So it begs to ask, could machine learning algorithms be the Holy Grail for betting on football on sites like BetPhoenix?

Machine Learning

Before we get to that question, what exactly is machine learning (ML)? From the study of pattern recognition and computational learning theory in Artificial Intelligence (AI), machine learning algorithms are essentially programs that can learn from and make predictions on data.

And, to be certain, if companies such as Google and Facebook use these types of algorithms, there’s clearly a case to make in favor of using them to predict the outcome of sports events.

What would it take for something like this to work? In a nutshell, tons of data.

But, before you get your hopes too high and go searching for data sets to feed your cash making machine algorithm, you should know it’s not the first time people have tried to use machine learning for these types of endeavors.

In fact, doubtless there’s never been a time in history where the amount of data has been so readily available. And, you’d think someone would already be raking in mountains of dollars predicting winning teams.

Football Wagers

But, of course, the reality isn’t that simple. And this is so because while there are plenty of good questions about football (and sports, in general) that would be great to throw at a machine designed to predict a game’s outcome, the difficult part is in knowing what data the algorithm needs to have to solve the puzzle.

And while things such as statistical analysis has been used in the past to give insights about which players are likely to perform well for example in games such as baseball, it doesn’t offer much for determining which players will perform. The same goes for machine learning, it still is a virtual impossibility for an artificial intelligent machine to predict a game’s result though it can be applied to predict certain results.

In other words, machine learning can’t predict, yet, but it may be able to tell you what the most likely result is. The rest is left to Lady Luck.

Sports Techie, the bottom line is whether betting is a game of skill or chance, often times it is both. No matter the outcome of each wager, betting is a game of skill when considering the bettors knowledge. Even when ML and AI are applied to wagering, they cannot guarantee that the game of chance is taken out.

Sports betting is legal across the UK and other nations.  According to ESPN, over half (53 percent) of all money bet at William Hill’s Nevada sportsbook is conducted through the company’s mobile app. ESPN further says that MGM, CG Technology, Wynn, Station Casinos and the Westgate SuperBook are other significant bookmakers that offer sports betting apps.

The NFL now goes overseas to play in England and down in Mexico during the regular season. The league turns off all betting kiosks inside host venues such as Wembley Stadium, however, ESPN states that mobile wagering takes place inside the stadium nevertheless.

Because there is nothing in the Raiders lease preventing access to the mobile sports betting apps offered by the majority of the state’s regulated sportsbooks, says ESPN, Nevada books have been offering mobile sports betting for several years, allowing bettors to place wagers on their mobile devices from anywhere inside state lines.

Have the NFL and state authorities considered what AI and ML will do to sports betting especially as the technologies mature over time? Does it really matter though when considering the massive amount of money illegally spent on sports wagering such as the World Cup or Super Bowl. I believe betting will soon be legal to participate with in certain states, then taxed to help pay for health care, education and infrastructure as President Trump continues his government spending cuts that negatively affect many more people than they help.

You can bet your bottom line States here in America are ready to legalize, regulate and tax sports betting yesterday.

Using ML and AI to assist with improved sport betting decision making is sound in theory however the games of chance and skill will still win the ‘juice’ no matter what the technology.

See ya later sports techie in Seattle, Atlanta and around the world!

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